I had planned on releasing our weekly update yesterday but then got a little carried away and decided we were overdue for a full top 200 re-rank. While making my updated rankings I also went deep into a Bowman autograph price wormhole on ProspectPulse. Pulling all of their pricing data I found how many non-debuted hitting prospects have base autographs over $20, $50, $100, etc. and used that distribution to tweak my target prices. After adjusting values for hours I got to numbers that I think make more sense than the previous expected values and they’re based on what we’ll call a Bowman “market cap” in a way. What was most noticeable to me after making the changes were the amount of players that fell in the ‘buy range’. Prior to the update there would have been 52 players in the top 200 that the formula labeled as a buy. Now there are only 35.
It might be harsher but what’s important is that it’s more accurate, and not only that but if a player qualifies as a buy now then that means the formula must really, really like them. At the end of the day giving you a shorter list of players to buy but ensuring that they’re the best ones should make it easier for you to profit on your investments. Make sure you don’t miss the graphics at the end of the rankings that show the best players to buy based on both percentage and dollar discrepancy between today’s actual prices and our new targets. I’ve also included a Google Sheet at the bottom so that you can sort every player in the top 200 by their team, age, price, and buy rating for those of you who like to use it for your own research purposes.
Buy Ratings
5.0 = Strongest Buy (price should be at least 100% higher)
4.5 - 4.9 = Strong Buy
4.0 - 4.4 = Buy
3.5 - 3.9 = Lean towards buying
3.1 - 3.4 = Hold but slightly undervalued
3.0 = Market is spot on
2.5 - 2.9 = Hold but slightly overvalued
2.1 - 2.4 = Lean towards selling
2.0 = Consider selling
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