Not many prospects have seen a meteoric rise like the one Kristian Campbell of the Red Sox had in 2024. It felt as though he went from a nobody in the hobby world to a consensus top-10 prospect overnight.
Coming out of college, everyone knew that the contact skills would be great. In 2023 at Georgia Tech, Campbell batted .376 with a .484 OBP and only struck out 17 times in 217 plate appearances. After hitting 4 HR in those 45 college games, he made his minor league debut later that year where he hit 1 HR in 22 games. Then seemingly out of nowhere, his power output exploded in 2024, hitting 20 HR across three levels. The only thing that rose more than his prospect stock, was his card pricing.
The question is, who saw this coming? Were there signs we all missed? And perhaps most importantly for us buying Bowman cards, who could do it next?
One of the things that was noticeable in Kristian Campbell’s pro debut is that despite hitting just 1 HR in 84 PA, he posted a very respectable .162 ISO. ISO is a measure of your raw power and it’s calculated by how often you get extra-base hits. While he only went deep once, he also had 4 doubles and 2 triples in his 21 hits. Of his 84 PA in 2023, 55 of them came in High-A, where his ISO was .156 in his age 21 season. So let’s start there. If you narrow down prospects age 21 or younger in 2024 to those with 50+ PA in High-A and an ISO over .150 you get 50 results.
Of course this is going to yield some big swing-and-miss power hitters, so we need a parameter that cuts it down to players more like Campbell. One of the most impressive parts of his hitting approach is his ability to not whiff. I consider a good Swinging Strike % to be anything under 12%. His SwStr% in 2023 was 9.3% for the year and 7.4% in High-A. If we take that list of 50 names and kick off anybody with a SwStr% over 9.5% we’re left with only 9 names.
One of the many things that makes Kristian Campbell such a tough out is his ability to hit the ball to all fields. His contact numbers are great, he hits the ball the hard, and he puts it wherever he wants it. Heck of a trifecta. In his debut season he had a… *checks notes*… 16% pulled ball rate. Now it was a small sample and that’s not exactly sustainable, but across three levels in 2024 he never had a pull % over 40%. Going back to our list of 9, we can add in that they must have had a pull % under 40% last year, and that narrows it to 3 players.
Now that we’ve got the what he hits (everything), and where he hits it (everywhere), let’s move on to how he hits it. I know you hear a lot about launch angle, but you don’t want a hitter who always puts the ball in the air. One of my favorite things about Campbell is that he’s one of the best line drive hitters in the minor leagues. In his 2023 debut between the Complex League and High-A only 29.2% of his batted balls were fly balls. When his power outburst came in 2024, his fly ball % was 27.3%, proving that there are ways for good line drive hitters to find power without selling out to hit it in the air. If you take our 3 names and drop everyone who had a fly ball % over 30% last year you’re left with… 1 player.
Stats
Campbell (2023 CPX/A+): .162 ISO, .431 wOBA, 152 wRC+
Player A (2024 A+): .188 ISO, .456 wOBA, 184 wRC+
Plate Discipline
Campbell (2023 CPX/A+): 46.2% Swing%, 79.8% Contact%, 9.3% SwStr%
Player A (2024 A+): 48.9% Swing%, 84% Contact%, 7.8% SwStr%
Batted Ball
Campbell (2024): 27.3% Fly Ball%, 29.5% Line Drive%, 39% Pulled Ball%
Player A (2024 A+): 25.9% Fly Ball%, 27% Line Drive%, 37.6% Pulled Ball%
Your mystery player, and “the next” Kristian Campbell, is Tre’ Morgan of the Tampa Bay Rays. While his cards did see a price hike last year, the market would suggest there is still room to grow. His 1st autograph can be found in 2023 Bowman Draft, ironically the same set as Kristian Campbell’s. The last raw sale of his 1st refractor autograph serial numbered to 499 was for $77. Campbell has had three of those cards sell in the last week with an average sale of $250. It’s not crazy to think that if Morgan dominates AA & AAA this year the way Campbell did last year his cards could easily double in value.
Player B
It’s not often this happens but sometimes no matter how many parameters I add someone will stick around because their batted ball data is also eerily similar to the guy we are trying to compare to. If you’re looking for a cheaper prospect to buy who could yield similar results, look no further than Sal Stewart of the Cincinnati Reds. You can find his 1st autograph in 2022 Bowman Draft, and his 1st refractor auto /499 will only run you $40-50. His ISO, SwStr%, and Pull% are right in line, if not better in some areas than Campbell and Morgan. He is also, like the other two, a really good line drive hitter. He fell off the list at the very end when I added the Fly Ball% under 30%, but to be fair his was only 31.8%. Oh, and hobby cherry on top, he’s about a year and a half younger than both of them.